Why Calibration Matters
In high-performance sport, confidence is required, but confidence is not the same as accuracy. Our research shows that coaches and practitioners across roles, experience levels, and genders are overconfident when making decisions under uncertainty.
Most decision-makers are poorly calibrated. They’re either overconfident—certain when they should be uncertain—or underconfident—doubting themselves when they’re right.
Well-calibrated decision-makers make more accurate predictions, better assess probabilities, communicate uncertainty effectively, and build trust through reliability.
The Financial Cost of Poor Decision-Making
Decision-making quality has direct reputational and financial consequences in professional sport—not to mention the disruption to an athlete’s career trajectory. When decision-making is poorly calibrated, organisations are more likely to misjudge risk, return-to-play timelines, training load trade-offs, and availability forecasts. The result is predictable and expensive: more time lost, more disrupted planning, and significant salary paid to unavailable players.
Recent published estimates illustrate the scale of the problem:
- European football: Over the last five seasons, injuries across Europe’s top men’s leagues have been estimated to cost €3.45bn (£2.97bn) in wages paid to unavailable players. (howdengroupholdings.com)
- Premier League: Injuries across Europe’s top five leagues were reported at €732m in wages in 2023/24 alone, with the largest share attributed to the Premier League. (Reuters)
- NBA: A major 2025 analysis estimated injuries could cost $525m in unused salary in a single season. (The Washington Post)
- MLB: A 2025 study estimated $1.26bn in salary paid to players who underwent UCL surgery over a 10-year period, plus substantial performance value loss. (ScienceDirect)
- NFL: Even looking at one injury category, estimates put lower-body injuries at $213m in salary impact in 2024 — roughly $370k per team per week. (VueMotion)
- MLS: A 2023 analysis of designated-player availability estimated millions in “wage waste” from missed matches across a season. (Zone7)
These figures mainly capture wages paid during absence. They typically do not include secondary costs such as reduced performance, fixture congestion effects, altered development pathways, opportunity costs of replacement signings, or downstream medical and insurance impacts.
This is where calibration becomes practical. Well-calibrated staff are better able to make accurately estimate probabilities for different outcomes, communicate uncertainty clearly, and make consistent decisions under pressure. Over time, that improves alignment across coaching, performance, and medical teams—and reduces the likelihood of avoidable high-cost errors.